The mathematician John Allen Paulos once said, “uncertainty is the only certainty there is”. One year on from the beginning of the first lockdown, never has this felt more true. In light of this, how certain should we be in our judgments about the decisions that were taken by those in power over the last twelve months? One strongly-held view is that had the government and its advisors been more decisive, acting with greater moral clarity in the early stages of the pandemic, more lives would have been saved. While for others, hindsight is 20:20 and context is everything, and any decisions taken in the midst of extreme uncertainty must be judged accordingly. In the last year we have witnessed anything but moral clarity in our passionate debates about the balance of harms and the clashes of good versus good. Public health has been pitted against livelihoods, family life, culture and the right to protest. What lessons should we take from the pandemic about the moral value of certainty? Uncertainty, particularly if it is prolonged, is psychologically bad for us and something we instinctively want to avoid for the sake of our mental health. In leadership, we admire those who have a clarity of vision, who are not paralysed by indecision and who keep their doubts to themselves. Others, however, believe that the reason society is so polarised is because too many people are certain they are right, and that moral certitude often has the effect of pandering to one group of people while alienating another. Is it a moment to embrace complexity, humility and self-reflection? Or has the last year provided a moral clarity about all sorts of things, notably injustices, that must now push back hard against any lingering doubt? With Raghib Ali, Lord David Blunkett, Jonathan Calvert and Quassim Cassam (from 24:51).